The Kirk Herbstreit Conspiracy

Quickly, what every Michigan fan would love to do to Herbie Herbstreit right now:



Seriously, though. A pretty tough week to be a Michigan fan, again. My belief is that this Les Miles situation may come back to haunt them. Optimism is still abound as one of the premier coaching jobs in the land is vacant, but when you don't get the guy you want (nevermind the Bill Martin "I'm an idiot show" situation), you are left in a bind. Recruiting is starting soon, men. Remember what Lloyd said as he slllllooooowwwwwlllly stepped down last month? It was about recruiting. It was about getting a guy in there. However, Martin's inability to be patient may cost my school dearly. You got a guy (Miles) whose walls are adorned with photos of Bo, a guy who fits the mold of a Michigan Man, a guy who along with that brings a brash confidence about him, one that this school and its football program could use. However, continuing a recent path of athletic chokery, they are instead left entangled in a sad,sad mess.
The Kirk Herbstreit Conspiracy is born. Leave it to an OSU grad to completely screw up Michigan's coaching search. I'd bet that Tressel and Herbie are sipping on some Zimas, laughing and talking about Maurice Clarett somewhere right this moment. MGoBlog agrees.

Has there ever been a coaching search handled in this manner before? Not to my knowledge, unless you want to count the resume issues with Mike Price and George O'Leary two years ago, but even that was solely on the coaches. This has to be the darkest period in recent Michigan football memory. Les Miles was going to be the Michigan coach. Now they are stuck with the likes of Greg Schiano, BRADY HOKE and JIM GROBE. Brian Kelly is not a candidate, which is unfortunate for them, as he has had success everywhere he has gone. Kirk Ferentz? Undoubtedly a disaster waiting to happen. All odds are on the Michigan students throwing a mass protest in front of President Coleman's house if the right guy isn't hired, because this school, and a few other major programs, are bound and determined not to become the next Notre Dame.

Undefeated in Regulation

As far as the BCS goes, it's a never-ending mess. They constantly harp on choosing the TWO BEST TEAMS to play for the national championship, correct? Then why aren't there more considerations taken into account when making this big decision? The SEC bias continually grows.

The main problem I have with what the voters seem to look at is the rankings at the time two teams played each other, which had to have been a major factor in looking at LSU's "body of work" if they were to jump so far (beating Tennessee can't be worth that much, can it?). Is that a sufficient indicator of how tough a team is, where they are ranked at a certain time? Let's compare the pre-season poll to the current polls:

Pre-season AP Poll:

1. USC (62) 0-0 1,622
2. LSU (2) 0-0 1,511
3. West Virginia (1) 0-0 1,396
4. Texas 0-0 1,375
5. Michigan 0-0 1,371
6. Florida 0-0 1,276
7. Wisconsin 0-0 1,192
8. Oklahoma 0-0 1,166
9. Virginia Tech 0-0 1,148
10. Louisville 0-0 1,031
11. Ohio State 0-0 876
12. California 0-0 790
13. Georgia 0-0 782
14. UCLA 0-0 605
15. Tennessee 0-0 571
16. Rutgers 0-0 560
17. Penn State 0-0 542
18. Auburn 0-0 519
19. Florida State 0-0 392
20. Nebraska 0-0 377
21. Arkansas 0-0 376
22. TCU 0-0 283
23. Hawaii 0-0 256
24. Boise State 0-0 187
25. Texas A&M 0-0 162

Last Week's Top 25 (Before the Conference Championship games):

1. Missouri (45) 11-1 1,604
2. West Virginia (20) 10-1 1,574
3. Ohio State 11-1 1,469
4. Georgia 10-2 1,354
5. LSU 10-2 1,269
6. Virginia Tech 10-2 1,266
7. Kansas 11-1 1,217
8. USC 9-2 1,212
9. Oklahoma 10-2 1,191
10. Florida 9-3 1,029
11. Hawaii 11-0 991
12. Boston College 10-2 909
13. Arizona State 9-2 826
14. Tennessee 9-3 746
15. Illinois 9-3 719
16. Clemson 9-3 553
17. Texas 9-3 435
18. Oregon 8-3 419
19. Wisconsin 9-3 398
20. Cincinnati 9-3 343
21. Brigham Young 9-2 329
22. Virginia 9-3 288
23. Auburn 8-4 226
24. Boise State 10-2 197
25. South Florida 9-3 190

The Current AP Poll as of Yesterday:

1. Ohio State (50) 11-1 1,578
2. LSU (11) 11-2 1,519
3. Oklahoma (1) 11-2 1,423
4. Georgia (1) 10-2 1,421
5. Virginia Tech (1) 11-2 1,380
6. USC 10-2 1,346
7. Missouri 11-2 1,195
8. Kansas 11-1 1,164
9. Florida 9-3 1,071
10. Hawaii (1) 12-0 1,050
11. West Virginia 10-2 1,040
12. Arizona State 10-2 939
13. Illinois 9-3 797
14. Boston College 10-3 668
15. Clemson 9-3 614
16. Tennessee 9-4 554
17. Texas 9-3 517
18. Wisconsin 9-3 447
19. Brigham Young 10-2 439
20. Cincinnati 9-3 394
21. Virginia 9-3 344
22. Auburn 8-4 264
23. South Florida 9-3 246
24. Boise State 10-2 221
25. Arkansas 8-4 173

Lots of changes here. Point being that pre-season, or even mid-season rankings, don't mean anything. It's all about how you end. Beating Louisville now would not be considered a big deal, correct? Then why should beating Louisville in the second week of the season be a big deal? Fact is that three of the teams that LSU beat were ranked, and are no longer ranked (Note: none of them were knocked out of the polls by LSU, they continued to lose because they are mediocre football teams). However, the Tigers keep getting credit for beating all of these ranked teams, and they shouldn't. Their schedule was not as tough as it seems.

To me, one HUGE question begs out of this poll situation. I have counted fourteen articles (yes, fourteen) pointing out how unhealthy LSU's team has been all season, and that at full strength they are the most talented team in the country. One, missing a wide receiver (Doucet) is not going to affect the outcome of a game. Two, LSU's defensive line is still one of the top in the country, even without Glenn Dorsey, who ability has indeed been severely hampered by his injury. Three, for the Matt Flynn fans, Perrilloux is a better quarterback! Look at the numbers! Perrilloux's performance against Tennessee was the best LSU QB performance of the season, unless you want to count Flynn's domination of Louisiana Tech. However, the question to me is, if you want to talk about health, what about Oklahoma?

Oklahoma State today

You lose your quarterback, who is the highest rated passer in the country (Flynn is the 78th FYI), lose by a touchdown to a bowl bound Texas Tech team, and are stuck with two losses, correct? You then go ahead and completely waste your rival in the final week of the season, and then dominate the #1 team in the country by three touchdowns on a neutral field with a healthy squad. However, the polls somehow grant LSU, who beat a mediocre Tennessee team, 11 first place votes. In the BCS, LSU and Oklahoma were only separated by two spots. Does beating the 14th ranked team by one touchdown really warrant a jump that high? Oklahoma didn't even jump to third, instead being done in by Georgia, who didn't even get to the SEC Championship game. Remember, they beat the #1 team in the country by 21, and it wasn't even that close.

I want to point out a couple inconsistencies that build an even better argument for Oklahoma. Remember, they are the only team to beat Missouri this season. Missouri has two victories over BCS teams (Illinois, Kansas), the most of anyone in the entire field, excluding the Sooners. Oklahoma dominated them....twice. Those two wins alone are more impressive than any single win that LSU has had all season. All things considered, Missouri might still have the strongest resume out of the two loss teams....they just lost at the wrong time.

Anyways, all the media pundits were calling for the Big 12 champ to be in the championship game three weeks ago when the Big Three (KU, MIZZOU, OU) were all ranked in the top 5. Granted, OU had the TT game, but we have already discussed that. My question is: Where are they now??? Why did these same coaches and media (AP, Harris) change their minds? I think our friends at Around the Oval sum it up best...."Looking at these games, with a focus on the Rose, Sugar, and BCS championship, one thing sticks out to me: The illusion that the mainstream media has cast over college football fans over the past year is that the SEC is the most dominant conference in college football and that the Big Ten is "slow," and has a chance to crumble to the core after this season.". After watching the rankings from last week turn into the rankings this week, how can you argue against this?

What would I do? Everyone seems to be worried about crying for a playoff that is never going to occur instead of fixing the existing system. It might be radical, but getting rid of the human polls and eliminating the ranking system completely might be the only way to make the BCS as a system work. How else can there be an unbiased system? Eliminating the polls would serve two very important purposes: One, it would eliminate the timing of a loss as a factor in determining how great a team is. This is the single biggest deficiency that the human polls bring into play. Why should teams be penalized for when they lose? Simple question, simple answer: They shouldn't be. Second, it would alleviate these ridiculous Strength of Schedule arguments that have an effect on where teams in the BCS.

A hypothetical:

Team A: Scheduled teams a combined record of 77-68, teams lost to a combined record of 22-4*. Currently ranked defeated opponents: 3. Unranked losses: 0

*- for statistical purposes

Team B: Scheduled teams a combined record of 79-66, teams lost to a combined 15-9 record. Currently ranked defeated opponents: 4. Unranked losses: 2

Which team has the better resume from top to bottom? The combined records of opponents are virtually the same. Team A was defeated by considerably better competition and has one less ranked victory. Both of their losses were to a ranked team. Which team would you take?



If you know anything about college football, you would easily realize that team A is Missouri. Team B, sure enough, is LSU. Looking at it this way, these two teams statistically seem almost dead even. In fact, I would be inclined to take team A (Mizzou) over LSU. Instead, the human element comes into play and brings in bias and irrationality. I'd be willing to bet a lot of people would look at these numbers and take Missouri. They are just an example.

In conclusion, it should be about the best two teams, determined in a completely unbiased fashion. If, for example, the two best teams are from the same conference, then so be it. However, human bias and the increasing emphasis on human polling continue to create beliefs that statistically don't exist. Missouri and Oklahoma are just examples. The computers say Virginia Tech is the #1 team in the country. The debate continues.......